Table of Contents


How to analyse the economic impact of COVID (New Post)
Individual freedom vs the collective good (New Post)
Who is ready to reopen? (New Post)
A historical context for the 2020 recession (New Post)
What are economists predicting for the US economy? (New Post)

Equity Valuation – Part 1 Without COVID-19
3 paths forward for the economy
Does policy matter?
Model update
What is safe?
What is the Mortality Rate? Update 2
What is the mortality rate? Quick data update
Are we past the peaks?
COVID – What is the mortality rate?
Can we ease the lockdown?
Modelling COVID
When will the lockdown end?
Which policy is the best for tackling the Pandemic?
The Denial Index
What would happen if Trump “reopened” the US?
Is Coronavirus the new 2008?

Conversation with a Brexiteer
Brexit – The Endgame – Update
Jo Swinson for PM in 2019?
What is No Deal Bexit?
What does May’s Deal lead to?

What do the politicians want?
The Will of the People
What happens next?
How bad is No Deal Brexit?
Brexit – The Endgame
Brexit and Ireland
Settling the Brexit Bill
What game are Brexiteers playing?
Who loses more from Brexit? The UK or EU?
UK Election – Brexit Views
UK Election Result and Brexit
Brexit – Deal or No Deal?
Brexit means No Brexit!
Brexit – where are we heading?
Sovereignty and power

Can you put a price on the environment?
Is Climate Science true?
The ethics of climate change
The economics of climate change

Vive La France!
Will the GOP turn on Trump?
UK Election – Costing Manifstos
Fiscal transfers within a country
What have we learned about the parties from the election?


Update on market views

Framework for valuing fixed income – Front end
Framework for valuing fixed income – Long end
Government Debt Framework – UK
Government Debt Framework – UK follow up

Framework for valuing equities Part 1- Compared to bonds
Framework for valuing equities Part 2 – Equity drivers
Framework for valuing equities Part 3 – Earnings Outlook
Framework for valuing equities Part 4 – PE Outlook
Framework for valuing equities Part 5 – Relationships between Components

Framework for FX valuation – where is the USD heading?

Using Statistics

Are Golf Handicaps Fair?

Games 1 What is a Game?
Games 2 Why do we play games?
Games 3 Volatility and Randomness – common confusions
Games 4 Fooled by volatility
Games 5 What is gambling?
Games 6 Why do people gamble?
Games 7 is trading gambling?

The misuse of significance

How to reduce your risk
How to reduce your risk – part 2
How to reduce your risk – part 3

A Black swan

The Misuse of Correlation 1 – Quick Refresher and Quiz
The Misuse of Correlation 2 – the results
The Misuse of Correlation 3
The Misuse of Correlation 4
The Misuse of Correlation 5 – Hedging and Portfolio Management

How we think

How to write
Project onto blanks
Questions I like to ask in meetings

Models – How do computers play chess?
First order approximation

Decision Making
Decision making – idea generation
Decision making – systematic flaws & biases
Desire – The Fatal Flaw
Desire – Why use a stop-loss?
The Backfire Effect

Pet Topics

Career Tips
The path to becoming a Portfolio Manager

What is our education system for?

Money 1 – A Creation Myth
Money 2 – An Alternative History
Money 3 – Banking – a money creation myth
Money 4 – Why does it matter?