Table of Contents

 


Politics

What is No Deal Bexit?    (NEW POST)
What does May’s Deal lead to?    (NEW POST)
What do the politicians want?    (NEW POST)
The Will of the People    (NEW POST)

What happens next?
How bad is No Deal Brexit?
Brexit – The Endgame
Brexit and Ireland
Settling the Brexit Bill
What game are Brexiteers playing?
Who loses more from Brexit? The UK or EU?
UK Election – Brexit Views
UK Election Result and Brexit
Brexit – Deal or No Deal?
Brexit means No Brexit!
Brexit – where are we heading?
Sovereignty and power

Can you put a price on the environment?
Models
Is Climate Science true?
The ethics of climate change
The economics of climate change

Vive La France!
Will the GOP turn on Trump?
UK Election – Costing Manifstos
Fiscal transfers within a country
What have we learned about the parties from the election?


Investment

Update on market views

Framework for valuing fixed income – Front end
Framework for valuing fixed income – Long end
Government Debt Framework – UK
Government Debt Framework – UK follow up

Framework for valuing equities Part 1- Compared to bonds
Framework for valuing equities Part 2 – Equity drivers
Framework for valuing equities Part 3 – Earnings Outlook
Framework for valuing equities Part 4 – PE Outlook
Framework for valuing equities Part 5 – Relationships between Components

Framework for FX valuation – where is the USD heading?


Using Statistics

Are Golf Handicaps Fair?

Games 1 What is a Game?
Games 2 Why do we play games?
Games 3 Volatility and Randomness – common confusions
Games 4 Fooled by volatility
Games 5 What is gambling?
Games 6 Why do people gamble?
Games 7 is trading gambling?

The misuse of significance

How to reduce your risk
How to reduce your risk – part 2
How to reduce your risk – part 3

A Black swan

The Misuse of Correlation 1 – Quick Refresher and Quiz
The Misuse of Correlation 2 – the results
The Misuse of Correlation 3
The Misuse of Correlation 4
The Misuse of Correlation 5 – Hedging and Portfolio Management


How we think

How to write
Creativity
Project onto blanks
Questions I like to ask in meetings
Feedback

Models – How do computers play chess?
First order approximation

Decision Making
Decision making – idea generation
Decision making – systematic flaws & biases
Desire – The Fatal Flaw
Desire – Why use a stop-loss?
The Backfire Effect


Pet Topics

Career Tips
The path to becoming a Portfolio Manager

What is our education system for?

Money 1 – A Creation Myth
Money 2 – An Alternative History
Money 3 – Banking – a money creation myth
Money 4 – Why does it matter?