Table of Contents



What do the politicians want?    (NEW POST)
The Will of the People    (NEW POST)
What happens next?    (NEW POST)
How bad is No Deal Brexit?
Brexit – The Endgame

Brexit and Ireland
Settling the Brexit Bill
What game are Brexiteers playing?
Who loses more from Brexit? The UK or EU?
UK Election – Brexit Views
UK Election Result and Brexit
Brexit – Deal or No Deal?
Brexit means No Brexit!
Brexit – where are we heading?
Sovereignty and power

Can you put a price on the environment?
Is Climate Science true?
The ethics of climate change
The economics of climate change

Vive La France!
Will the GOP turn on Trump?
UK Election – Costing Manifstos
Fiscal transfers within a country
What have we learned about the parties from the election?


Update on market views

Framework for valuing fixed income – Front end
Framework for valuing fixed income – Long end
Government Debt Framework – UK
Government Debt Framework – UK follow up

Framework for valuing equities Part 1- Compared to bonds
Framework for valuing equities Part 2 – Equity drivers
Framework for valuing equities Part 3 – Earnings Outlook
Framework for valuing equities Part 4 – PE Outlook
Framework for valuing equities Part 5 – Relationships between Components

Framework for FX valuation – where is the USD heading?

Using Statistics

Are Golf Handicaps Fair?

Games 1 What is a Game?
Games 2 Why do we play games?
Games 3 Volatility and Randomness – common confusions
Games 4 Fooled by volatility
Games 5 What is gambling?
Games 6 Why do people gamble?
Games 7 is trading gambling?

The misuse of significance

How to reduce your risk
How to reduce your risk – part 2
How to reduce your risk – part 3

A Black swan

The Misuse of Correlation 1 – Quick Refresher and Quiz
The Misuse of Correlation 2 – the results
The Misuse of Correlation 3
The Misuse of Correlation 4
The Misuse of Correlation 5 – Hedging and Portfolio Management

How we think

How to write
Project onto blanks
Questions I like to ask in meetings

Models – How do computers play chess?
First order approximation

Decision Making
Decision making – idea generation
Decision making – systematic flaws & biases
Desire – The Fatal Flaw
Desire – Why use a stop-loss?
The Backfire Effect

Pet Topics

Career Tips
The path to becoming a Portfolio Manager

What is our education system for?

Money 1 – A Creation Myth
Money 2 – An Alternative History
Money 3 – Banking – a money creation myth
Money 4 – Why does it matter?