Thank for your explaining why you are in favour of No Deal Brexit. But I am afraid I am still rather confused. Many of your statements seem to be contradictory. Could you please explain to me how to reconcile them?
a. The EU will back down because No Deal Brexit is such an economic disaster
b. No Deal Brexit is not a problem at all
a. The EU is a danger to Parliamentary sovereignty in the UK which should be absolute
b. The UK Parliament should be ignored and bypassed if they want to stop No Deal Brexit
a. We need to be out of the customs union and reinstate our borders to control movement of people and goods
b. We do not need a border
a. The EU is a powerful superstate that will become increasingly integrated
b. The EU is fragile and will break apart
a. The EU has majority voting
b. The EU is a dual monarchy ruled by France-Germany
a. The EU is an Empire
b. The EU is a Federal state
a. It is terrible that the smaller countries are made to pay their debts – Germany should bail them out
b. It is terrible that the smaller countries will not pay their debts and will need to be bailed out
a. There is too much tax harmonisation in the EU
b. Some EU states have much higher tax burdens than others e.g. France is the highest and far higher than some others such as Ireland
a. The EU is undemocratic
b. Is it right that the UK PM is elected by Conservative party members only
a. The EU is undemocratic with no control by elected politicians
b. We should undermine the European Parliament as its elected politicians have too much power
I also have some questions for you
- You talk a lot about why you dislike the euro. Since the UK is not in the euro area and had a legal opt out, why is this relevant to Brexit?
- I get the sense that the central issue for you is that the EU is moving towards being a Federal state and that the UK will be forced to be a part of that. Apart from rhetoric of “ever closer union” could you tell me what steps the EU has made in the direction of a federal state in the past decade?It seems to me that this is a far from certain or even likely outcome and that there has been no movement in that direction in a long time. Could you please explain how the UK could be forced to be a member of this future federal state since we have an opt out on the euro and Schengen? Could you please explain why it is better to leave now when that outcome is a remote possibility rather than to wait?
- You point out that the EU is not perfect and seem to think that this is a winning argument for Brexit. You imply that our future state outside the EU will be much better. But you have not explained in any detail what the world after Brexit would look like. For example, we currently have Single Market access to 27 countries (45% of our exports) and trade deals with 70 other countries. Post Brexit we will have trade deals with countries accounting for a total of 5% of our exports. The other 95% will be on punitive WTO terms. But it is claimed that Brexit will improve our trade position. How is this not simply the Nirvana Fallacy? I.e. “comparing actual things with unrealistic, idealized alternatives”. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nirvana_fallacy
- Where do you want the border? If you want to be out of the Customs Union then that means you have a border for customs checks. They are essentially different phrases for the same thing. There are 2 logical places to have the border
a. Between NI and the Republic of Ireland which endangers peace
b. Down the Irish Sea which endangers the integrity of the UK
Which do you prefer?
- The economic consequences
You mention that you think that the consequences so far have not been as bad as predicted. You only give one 2016 forecast (the most pessimistic) but an average of the main forecasters is actually surprisingly accurate i.e. that UK GDP is about 2% lower now than it would have been if we had voted Remain due to reduced confidence and investment.
For the forecasts the main hit to the economy is after Brexit actually happens with particularly bad and uncertain outcomes in a No Deal scenario.
Do you disagree with the negative economic impact of No Deal Brexit? Or simply view it as a price worth paying.
Applied Macro 